The “Bolsonaro Tax” and the Cobra Coral Chief: How Politics, Trade, and Culture Collide

The recent escalation between Brazil and the United States reveals a complex interplay of politics and economics. On July 9, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports—a measure quickly dubbed the “Bolsonaro Tax.” This unprecedented move was explicitly linked to Brazil’s judicial actions against former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom Trump described as a victim of a political “witch hunt.” In Trump’s words, these proceedings represented an attack on freedoms and democratic norms, with repercussions reaching beyond Brazil’s borders. In reality, the tariff is a political weapon disguised as trade policy, marking one of the most aggressive interventions in Brazil-U.S. relations in decades.

For Brazil, the implications are immediate and severe. The United States is one of Brazil’s largest trade partners, particularly for commodities, agribusiness, and industrial products. A sudden 50% tariff is not merely symbolic; it threatens the competitiveness of Brazilian exports and could ripple through industries like soy, beef, steel, and even aviation. 

Politically, however, the consequences are far from what Trump may have intended. His strategy seems aimed at mobilizing Bolsonaro’s remaining allies and projecting influence abroad by punishing a government he perceives as left-leaning and hostile to his ideological ally. Yet, this approach has largely backfired. Within Brazil, Trump’s tariff announcement has united the political spectrum around national sovereignty, boosting President Lula’s standing at home. The Brazilian government immediately vowed reciprocal tariffs, framing Trump’s move as a violation of international norms and an affront to Brazilian dignity. For many Brazilians, this feels less like a dispute over trade and more like an attempt at foreign interference in domestic justice. Ironically, rather than saving Bolsonaro, Trump’s intervention has further isolated him, turning him into a liability for the very political factions he once dominated.

The timing is also critical. Brazil is approaching a heated electoral cycle in 2026, and nationalism remains a powerful card to play. Lula has skillfully transformed this tariff crisis into a rallying point, presenting himself as the defender of Brazil’s economic and political independence. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s legal troubles deepen, and his camp faces scrutiny for allegedly encouraging Trump’s intervention. Far from revitalizing Bolsonaro’s political capital, the so-called “Bolsonaro Tax” has painted him as a figure whose foreign connections now harm, rather than help, Brazil’s interests.

Amid this high-stakes drama, a seemingly surreal twist emerged: the Cacique Cobra Coral Foundation, a Brazilian spiritualist entity famous for claiming to control the weather, announced that it would “suspend 50% of its climate assistance to the United States” in response to Trump’s tariffs. Founded in 1931, the foundation operates at the intersection of mysticism and public life, asserting that it can influence rainfall to protect major events like Carnival and even international ceremonies. While its pronouncement carries no material consequence, it underscores a uniquely Brazilian form of cultural resistance: one that mixes humor, spirituality, and politics. Social media exploded with memes mocking the idea of mystical sanctions. Yet, the episode also reflects something deeper: in moments of crisis, Brazil often mobilizes symbols and cultural narratives as a form of soft power and national assertion.

From a geopolitical perspective, Trump’s decision signals a weaponization of trade policy for political ends, a move that unsettles traditional norms in global commerce. By leveraging tariffs to influence Brazil’s judiciary, Washington risks undermining its credibility as a defender of the rule-based international order. This opens the door for alternative powers, particularly China and the European Union, to strengthen ties with Brazil. Already, analysts predict that the fallout from these tariffs could accelerate Brazil’s pivot toward BRICS partners, deepening a global realignment at a time when trade wars and nationalist agendas are reshaping the global economy.

In short, the “Bolsonaro Tax” is far more than an economic measure, as it is a political gambit that has sparked diplomatic retaliation, galvanized domestic politics in Brazil, and even triggered cultural responses that blur the line between satire and soft power. For the U.S., the tariffs may satisfy Trump’s political base, but they risk alienating an important regional player and pushing Brazil closer to rival powers. For Brazil, the crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity: a chance to assert sovereignty, diversify trade partnerships, and remind the world that, in the theater of politics, even mystical actors like the Cobra Coral Chief can find their moment on the global stage.