Trump’s Presidency and a Shift in U.S-Brazil Relations

With Donald Trump’s decisive election on November 6th, diplomatic relations across the globe, including those with Brazil, are now in jeopardy. It is widely acknowledged that the United States wields significant influence over other nations in economic, military, humanitarian, and political areas. Consequently, decisions made by figures as influential as the U.S. Presidents have the potential to directly impact global diplomacy and affect, or create, harmonious international relations.

During the U.S. elections, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly endorsed Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris, and expressed his concerns about the implications of another Trump presidency. Brazilian diplomats now suggest that the dynamic between the two leaders could lead to a cooling of relations between the two nations -  a contrast to the cooperative relationship Lula shared with President Joe Biden. Moreover, key international initiatives could be at stake. Trump has announced plans to dismantle Biden’s “Climate Action,” who also incentivized Amazon rainforest conservation, a policy supported by Lula. However, despite Lula’s alignment with Biden on environmental issues, he has also been critical of the United States’ significant involvement in international conflicts. His critiques of American investments in foreign wars, such as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, indicate that shifts in U.S.-Brazil relations are likely to occur under Trump’s administration.

Another challenge posed by Trump’s election for Lula’s government is the potential resurgence of right-wing movements in Brazil. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, currently banned from running for office until 2030, maintained a close relationship with Trump during his presidency. The two leaders had governments and supporters with impressive similar ideological tendencies, and their nations experienced parallel events, such as the January 6 Capitol attack in the United States and the January 8 Congress attack in Brazil. Trump’s victory may embolden opposition groups in Brazil, potentially affecting the 2026 presidential elections and challenging Lula’s administration.

However, Brazil is not the only country facing uncertainty due to Trump’s return to power. The United States itself could see significant humanitarian and political shifts under its new administration. As a Ukrainian MP remarked, “Do not try to predict Trump’s actions. No one knows how he is going to act.” The next four years may compel nations to adapt to potential U.S. isolationism and fractured diplomatic ties, underscoring the challenges nations may face by ties shaped by Trump’s leadership.

By Sofia Rodrigues 

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil